With barely suppressed glee, the BBC reports upon the rouble/US dollar exchange rate:

The Russian rouble has fallen to its lowest value for 16 months, falling past 100 per US dollar.

The decline comes as pressure grows on the Russian economy, with imports rising faster than exports and military spending growing for the Ukraine war."

According to the International Energy Agency, Russian export revenues were $15.3 billion in July, $4.1 bn lower than in July 2022.

All of which sounds very ominous until you remember a few facts

  1. The Russian Economy uses roubles, not US dollars
  2. The Russian Government spends and taxes in roubles, not US dollars.
  3. They don’t use the rouble anywhere else.
  4. Russians don’t tend to buy much in US dollars because of sanctions.

At the end of July 2022, the rouble exchange rate was 61.8. Now in August 2023, it is over 100.

When reported in the correct currency, Russian export revenue in July 2022 was ₽1,199 billion, whereas the export revenue from July 2023 is now worth at least ₽1,530 billion.

That’s an increase of ₽330 bn.

Only Western reporters can answer how an increase in revenue is a ‘decline’ or a ‘weakening’, especially when export volumes are steady.

Seriously, do the maths.

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